New broadband forecasts for the UK are good news for broadband operators and service providers.
The total number of broadband lines is now expected to be 25.1million by the end of 2014, almost a million more than earlier estimates, according to online trends experts PointTopic.
It says that, while the increase is not huge, it will help to improve the business case for broadband, and particularly for investment in superfast broadband using next generation access.
The short-term forecasts have also been increased. The actual total of lines in use at the end of 2009 was 80,000 higher than forecast, at 18.37million. The forecast for the end of this year has subsequently been increased to 19.79million, from 19.58million.
A major feature of the longer-term forecasts is the dramatic growth projected for superfast broadband, mainly based on fibre to the cabinet or premises (FTTx). Contrary to much opinion, Point Topic is projecting a boom in FTTx similar to what happened with BT’s DSL broadband services in the mid-2000s.
“We believe that FTTx will echo the development of DSL in the UK,” says Tim Johnson, Chief Analyst at Point Topic.
“People with dial-up internet access converted to broadband in their millions in the boom years. We forecast that superfast broadband will do the same around the middle of this coming decade.”
The number of DSL lines grew from 550,000 to 12.3 million between 2003 and 2007. Point Topic now expects that next-generation FTTx broadband will do something similar, with 12 million lines by the end of 2016.
“The difference from the noughties is that we think there will be a quicker run-up this time,” says Johnson. “While it took DSL three years to get from almost nothing to half a million, we expect that FTTx will cover similar ground in only two years.”
Key factors on the other side of the balance are that FTTx demands much more new investment than DSL and superfast broadband is not yet fully proven as a must-have service for ordinary homes.
“We think these barriers will be swept aside as user demand for bandwidth and a quality experience spirals upwards,” says Johnson.